Analyst Mischief has released updated projections regarding the probability of teams qualifying for the upcoming major tournament. G2 Esports and Astralis are currently positioned as the most secure, with both teams holding a 99.99% chance of participation. Ninjas in Pyjamas also remain in a strong position with a 99.99% likelihood, though the team has not yet guaranteed a spot in the second stage of the event.
FUT Esports shows a 99.97% chance of qualification, although the team faces potential challenges in completing the five matches required for new roster registration. Additionally, the potential dual registration of cmtry between FUT and Astralis could influence the final standings. FaZe Clan is currently projected to reach the first stage with a 74.2% chance of qualification.
NAVI maintains a 68.5% chance of making the major. The team faces significant pressure during the PGL Masters Bucharest, where poor results could impact their ability to compete in subsequent events like IEM Beijing. B8 has a 58% chance of qualifying, with the Relog Tesla Cup serving as their final opportunity to secure points. Performance outcomes at this cup will drastically alter their standing, as a 7th–8th place finish would see their probability drop to 0.2%.
Other teams are fighting for the remaining slots, with 100 Thieves at 51.1% and Inner Circle at 25.3%. For Inner Circle to improve their outlook, they likely need to reach the top two in Stake Episode 5. Fnatic follows with a 24.8% chance, while Eternal Fire remains on the outside with a 4.6% probability, necessitating both strong performances and favorable results from their competitors to advance.
Note: This article is based on publicly available sources and reflects information available at the time of publication. Details may change; check the original or official source for updates.